Brent crude dipped slightly to $83.65/bbl, weighed down by soft global demand, robust inventories, and ongoing U.S.-EU tariff negotiations. Henry Hub gas fell to $3.29/MMBtu as mild weather and high storage capped domestic demand, even as LNG exports remained strong. U.S. rig activity fell for the third straight week, reinforcing a wait-and-see approach from producers. Weaker gasoline cracks have led refiners to pivot toward diesel and jet fuel, squeezing propylene and ethylene availability.
Looking ahead, monomer markets are expected to remain tight through early Q3, while Q3-Q4 may see stronger demand from a rebound in construction and automotive applications. Price volatility in feedstocks is likely as summer cooling boosts NGL demand. Strategic actions include securing flexible supply contracts, maintaining safety stock for tight-supply chemistries, and engaging customers to refine forecasts and procurement plans. Watch Gulf Coast cracker margins and rig count trends as leading indicators for H2 recovery.
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