Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure—including the South Pars gas field and key refineries—sparked immediate retaliatory action from Iran, affecting Israel’s Haifa refinery. Brent crude spiked to $77 before stabilizing near $74–75, marking the sharpest daily increase since 2022. ULSD futures rose ~8%, gasoline climbed 5–8%, and inflation warnings emerged in the UAE, India, and Australia. Trade disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed insurers and freight operators to raise premiums and reroute vessels.
Though global refining capacity remains intact, regional LPG and LNG feedstock supply is under pressure. Diesel margins are tightening, and petrochemical producers may encounter rising input costs, feedstock volatility, and logistics delays. Strategic focus should be placed on Brent–diesel spreads, shipping timelines, and agile procurement. Scenario planning indicates that prolonged conflict or strait disruptions could trigger severe cost inflation and supply shocks across the petrochemical value chain.
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